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Forrester Sheds Light on Tourism Figures

Hotel occupancyAntigua St John's - General Manager of the Antigua Hotels and Tourist Association (AHTA) Neil Forrester has said recent media reports have failed to consider that hotel occupancy and rates are two very different terms and issues.

Caribarena.com contacted Forrester for clarity on the recently released numbers that caused such excitement in the Tourism ministry and certain sections of the local press.



In his report on the country’s hotel occupancy rate for April 2012, Forrester said the month had produced the best occupancy figures since 2008, with an average of 63.8 percent.

He said while Antigua is still a long way from the 2007/2008 figures of around 70 percent, there are still “some signs of recovery” with several hotels showing good occupancy, while others are still struggling to find their clientele.

The year to date occupancy rate stands at 66.9 percent, compared to 69.3 percent last year. But this is mainly due to the exceptional month of March last year with the military exercise, Forrester said.

One publication's headline titled “Room Rates Climb,” had suggested that the cost of the rooms was synonymous with the considerably high occupancy number, a notion the Forrester said was inaccurate.

“You can fill all your rooms if you sell them at $1, but you still need to find that balance," he said. "To say the occupancy went up could also mean offers were put out there and people took it. All I can say is that we sold so many out of what was available. It is only part of the jigsaw puzzle."

Speaking further about how the occupancy numbers were interpreted, the GM said, “I just send out bare figures.

Occupancy numbers have little bearing on financial gain.”

He said the part of the picture that is always missing in cases like these is the financial piece. To establish his point, Forrester noted that while one person can come to Antigua and stay in a hotel for a month, it would equate to 30 people staying in the same hotel for one night.

And while the health of the industry could be examined through the arrival figures at the airport, most of these people disappear in villas, family homes, and elsewhere and are difficult to keep an accurate track of, Forrester said.

“All I can say is that hotel occupancy was higher than last year," he said. "And all I can do is speculate that there is some glimmer of recovery. April is a strange month, because it is when the season changes from winter to summer.”

Caribarena.com had also sought clarification from Forrester about Antigua’s perceived inefficiency in having current and relevant occupancy information available on the Caribbean Tourism Organization’s website (CTO). Forrester explained that the CTO never had Antigua’s occupancy data, but rather had the arrival figures. The occupancy figures are collated by the AHTA, he said, not the ministry.



“Barbados is always very efficient in getting their arrival numbers," he said. "But as I said, you need all parts of the jigsaw to see the complete picture, and you will always be missing the financial piece, which is also the most important.”

Attempts to reach Minister of Tourism John Maginley for a comment were unsuccessful.

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9 Comments In This Article   

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RE: Forrester Sheds Light on Tourism Figures

#9 Dear Mr Spencer » 2012-05-14 22:04

The prime minister of Antigua has named Britain and the US as partly to blame for a spate of violent attacks which have "nearly overwhelmed" the Caribbean island, including this week's shooting of a British honeymoon couple, Benjamin and Catherine Mullany.

In a televised address, Antigua and Barbuda's leader, Baldwin Spencer, asked for Scotland Yard's help in reversing the rise in crime over the last 10 years, which he called a "threat to our very survival" due to its impact on tourism - the economic lifeblood of the island. He said Britain and the US shared the blame for deporting hundreds of convicted criminals to the region.

"Antigua and Barbuda has long been a nation of law-abiding citizens and residents," said Spencer. "In the past decade, however, we have been nearly overwhelmed by events of crime and violence that are alien to this part of the world."

I am sure you will all join me in offering profuse apologies to the PM and people of Antigua for sending their criminal scum, murderers and rapists back where they came from.
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Dear Mr Spencer

De Real Observer

#8 Osbert R. Frederick » 2012-05-11 22:56

When I heard the report that hotel occupancy was up, I said, at what cost. Yes, we had more persons staying in our hotels, but the hotels lost money, because they had to drop their rates to ridiculously level to attract clients. Hotel employees were working fewer hours because the hotels could not afford to have them on for regular hours because of the low rates. This is a fact. John Maginley et all, we will not be fooled by your figures, especially those like myself who study this industry. By the way, Jamaica is the best country in these past when it comes to having accurate figures pertaining to visitor arrivals, hotel stay etc.
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Osbert R. Frederick

@Tenman@John French II

#7 Dig It » 2012-05-11 22:20

Whatever our tourism offials "intent" in using their samples to get statistical figures, the fact of the matter is "misleading!" Tenman, a further "stripping" of the meat on the bone, I am sure will reveal more such as "lay-off" hotel workers, along with some hotels bad-reservation system and little/nil no-amenities. John French, perhaps, the GM needs to use the huge amount of monies collected, and, "upgrade" AHTA's website to make it "Less-Clutter" and more "Quality!" It doesn't make sense to have a website that is "missing" "links" to statistical data, and, some of our "historical-sit es (need more attention in upgrading)," and "attractions!" Yet, the GM have time to be the "author" of pictures taken of the Wadadli Animal Park. I swear one of the Billy Goats resembles him or the MP! Perpahs, the Gm could take a look at St.Lucia's Hotel & Tourism website www.slhta.org/
My friends there are so much work to be done but we can't continue to take "short-cuts" to compete with others! I am of the view that "Tourism" should be everybody's business, and, only those who run it!
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Dig It

@ Tenman & Dig It - Literacy & Numeracy: Not Mutually Exclusive!

#6 John French II » 2012-05-11 15:01

Notes From A Native Son Of The Rock. Notwithstanding repeated calls for Strategic Planning in all sectors of GoAB and especially to Min. Of Ed to focus on better Teaching methods in Literacy, Numeracy, Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics, many of the "Bewildered & Bemused Electorate" still fall prey to the words of the ancient politician that "Antigu ans & Barbudans are not a Reading Public."
Quote:
In April 2008, the pre-recession era, occupancy rates stood at an overall average of 72.4 percent. Out of a sample of 29 hotels, 36 percent of the rooms available were attributed to the Elite Grouping and Sandals Brand, with these properties accounting for 51 percent of the rooms occupied. ... , “Where are the other properties faltering?” Forrester noted that the problem lies in the product offered by the properties, firstly, and then, with the lower end, small independent boutique properties, it has to do with marketing, and the procurement and management of the right distribution channels.
The Answer: Quote:
Now I lay me down to sleep, I pray the Lord my soul to Keep.
Much Respect.
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John French II

Dig It

#5 tenman » 2012-05-11 13:18

Dig It if you are anyone else have the time, look at the document entitled April_Occupancy _Figures.jpg and ask yourself why the sampled rooms for the month are only 89830? This then indicates that they are not looking at all rooms in Antigua & Barbuda. According to the 2010 COUNTRY STATISTICS AND ANALYSES report from CTO, Antigua has 4676 total rooms per day. This would then mean for the month of April there should be 140280 rooms. Yet the AHTA figures ignores 50450 rooms and speculates that occupancy is up for April based on looking at almost 90K of them. Sampling has its use but it must be done in a way to ensure that the sampled properties truly reflect the entire population. When being compared to other periods, it must consider differences. The current method does not deal with the real possibility that we have less rooms now than we did 4 years ago, due to hotel closures.

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tenman

We are paying him for bare figures!

#4 Dig It » 2012-05-11 12:26

If the "occupancy figues are collated by AHTA" and "not the Ministry," then I am sure it is fair to say that the GM could "speculate" all day and send out "bare figures" to the public on the rates of any given month, besides, April! Yet, the Ministry of Tourism keeps given them millions and millions without a "performance-cl ause" in place to get results! The sector is having a hard time competing with other islands, due mostly to "out-dated" thinkers on board! How really "serious" is the GM and the Ministry in making sure that they are "signs of recovery" in the sector? Tenman, thanks for the data! I am the GM would say that the islands doing well are also "speculating!"
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Dig It

RE: Forrester Sheds Light on Tourism Figures

#3 tenman » 2012-05-11 10:18

I often hear it stated that our revenue (declining GDP) issue is based only on the "global financial crisis", my question is why is it that other islands have been able to grow their stay over tourism numbers above the numbers of 2008 while Antigua is still 9% below based on our 2011 numbers)? Jamaica is showing a 10% increase in comparison to 2008, can we not learn anything from them? Our GDP decline is a clear indication that tourism revenues are also declining since tourism represents 70% of our GDP.


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tenman

RE: Forrester Sheds Light on Tourism Figures

#2 tenman » 2012-05-11 09:52

Quote:
And while the health of the industry could be examined through the arrival figures at the airport, most of these people disappear in villas, family homes, and elsewhere and are difficult to keep an accurate track of, Forrester said. “All I can say is that hotel occupancy was higher than last year," he said. "And all I can do is speculate that there is some glimmer of recovery. April is a strange month, because it is when the season changes from winter to summer...“Barbados is always very efficient in getting their arrival numbers," he said. "But as I said, you need all parts of the jigsaw to see the complete picture, and you will always be missing the financial piece, which is also the most important.
Again, I will state, we need to ensure that our marketing is proactive by getting critical data on time



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tenman

@ InteresteD

#1 Sapping Hand » 2012-05-11 07:34

At last the truth is now out: TOURISM ARRIVALS ARE DOWN! No amount of cheese can change that fact! Maginley is not available for comment so you can comment for him!
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Sapping Hand

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