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Politics
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Monday, 04 February 2013 02:30
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By caribarena news
Antigua St. John's - Friday's poll for the St. John's City East Constituency put Deputy leader of the United Progressive Party and Finance Minister Harold Lovell against the Antigua Labour Party's Melford Nicholas.
In the 2009 elections, Lovell faced off with then ALP candidate Ronald Maginley. Lovell won his seat, with a victory margin of 12.3%.
Nicholas, on the other hand, contended as an independent in the St. John's Rural East constituency, where he was unable to secure a victory against the UPP's Errol Cort and then ALP Leader Lester Bird.
Friday's poll was the first poll in which a Incumbent UPP Minister received the most votes. For the duration of the poll, Nicholas led by a small and unsteady margin, but was gradually overtaken by Lovell, who closed the day only slightly ahead of Nicholas.
Total Votes in Poll: 605
Percentage of Vote for Lovell: 44.6%
Percentage of Vote for Nicholas: 38.7%
Percentage of Vote for None of the Above: 16.7%
Harold Lovell (UPP, Incumbent)
Total Votes: 270
Votes from Antigua and Barbuda: 209
Votes from Overseas: 61
Percentage of Local Votes: 77.4%
Percentage of Overseas Votes: 22.6%
Melford Nicholas (ALP)
Total Votes: 234
Votes from Antigua and Barbuda: 180
Votes from Overseas: 54
Percentage of Local Votes: 76.9%
Percentage of Overseas Votes: 23.1%
None of the Above
Total Votes: 101
Votes from Antigua and Barbuda: 90
Votes from Overseas: 11
Percentage of Local Votes: 89.1%
Percentage of Overseas Votes: 10.9%
In total, there were 605 votes in Friday's poll. Lovell got 44.6% of the vote, Nicholas received 38.7% of the vote, and the none of the above option received 16.7% of the vote.
In Antigua, there were 479 votes, with Lovell receiving 43.6% of the total local votes, Nicholas receiving 37.6% of the total local votes, and the none of the above option receiving 18.8% of the total local votes.
Friday's poll was also the poll with the highest percentage of None of the Above votes in a Caribarena poll to date, indicating less satisfaction with the available candidates in this constituency than in past constituencies.
6 Comments In This Article
RE: St John's City East Poll Analysis
We'd like to thank you for participating in the poll for St. John's City East!
Regarding your concerns, the change in numbers is due to revision of polling data. After each poll is closed, the data is revised and double-votes and other attempts to cheat the system are filtered out. As a result, the final poll numbers and the numbers in subsequent analyses do not always match.
Regarding your concern that the poll was unavailable on Friday for local voters, we received votes via SMS and Internet votes from Antigua and Barbuda throughout the day. If you encountered an issue voting online, voting via mobile SMS is always an option.
Regarding your final concern, our poll is also updated from SMS messages. These SMS messages are sometimes delayed due to local or international mobile networks. Additionally, our system updates the votes in batches, so if many votes come in through SMS over a period of time, it can result in sudden spikes for a particular candidate.
Caribarena
RE: St John's City East Poll Analysis
Perplexed
More Strange than true
Which figures are we to believe? On Friday night when you closed the polls, the web results were reflecting 301 to Lovell, 292 to Nicholas and 122 to none of the above. Now without any footnotes you publish these numbers above. Which set of numbers are correct and what is the reason for the variance?
Further you need to explain why for the better part of Friday that persons residing in Antigua & Barbuda that were desirous of participating in the poll could not vote on your website but persons residing outside of Antigua, could.
For those of us who were following this poll with keen interest, we knew that Nicholas had established a comfortable lead (approx 50 votes) over Lovell between 6:00pm and 11:30pm. Up until 11:25pm your website was showing the following results 251 Nicholas, 206 Lovell and 121 None of the above. Within the next 35 mins Lovell's numbers climbed by 96 the greatest single half hour flurry in all of your polls to date and Nicholas moved up by 41. Something smells fishy!!!
Fulcrum
RE: St John's City East Poll Analysis
Butters
Words of Wisdom to ALP
Gambles Resident
@ Lester!
Meigo Man
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