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Huge Revenue Shortfall For 2012

Huge Revenue Shortfall For 2012Antigua St. John's - Finance Minister Harold Lovell says it is “highly unlikely” that Antigua and Barbuda can still recover from a revenue shortfall of over $250 million on its budgetary projections for 2012.

Speaking Monday on the matter, Lovell said the country simply has to deal with the situation of shortened revenue intake as best it could, and his Ministry is doing so as it usually does --  through “periodical adjustment.”

The Minister was responding to questions from Caribarena regarding figures appearing in the recently released 3rd Quarterly Fiscal Report, with a comparison of projections in the 2012 Budget Statement presented last December.

According to Page 4 of the review, Antigua and Barbuda showed a decline in total revenue and grants by $3.1 million, having only received $466.2 million.

Government credited the decline to the “lack of capital grants during 2012, compared with $25.8 million received in 2011.”

At the same time, page 36 of the 2012 Budget Statement shows total expected revenue and grants of $735 million, and projected expenditure of $754.9, leaving an overall projected deficit of no more than $19.9 million.

Lovell admitted that at this stage of the fiscal year, it is unlikely that such a deficit of $268.8 million can be reversed, even though in the 3rd Quarterly Report it is noted that total revenue and grants only fell by a marginal 0.7 percent when compared with what was expected by the close of that period.



“I doubt it now (that the country would realize the complete $735m). But we will see what happens,” said the Finance Minister when questioned by Caribarena early on Monday.

He noted in his brief response that countering the $268.8 million shortfall as of the end of the 3rd quarter would be the “ideal situation”, based on the budgetary projections of expected revenue.

The 3rd Quarter Fiscal Report of 2012 confirms on page 3 that the country’s overall deficit, as of the end of the period under review, was more than double the expectation of the combined quarters, standing then at $46.5 million including interest payments.

As noted earlier, the budget deficit for 2012 was expected to be a little less than $20 million.

When questioned about this, Lovell said he was unable to answer accurately since there is the overall deficit to account for, and then the primary deficit; notwithstanding that the insufficiency cited in his last report reflects the “overall fiscal deficit”.

Said the Minister: “What we have in the third review is where we are. I will be in a better position to speak to that in the 2013 budget. But I think it is unlikely that we would meet the revenue target at this point.”

Caribarena would like to thank tenman for his research skills providing information in his comments which resulted in this article.

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19 Comments In This Article   

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RE: Huge Revenue Shortfall For 2012

#19 Johnny » 2012-12-06 22:47

But CA, this just occured to me. Yes at 3/4 of the year govt is down 250 million in expected revenenue but it is also down 242 million in expenditure (what was estimate to what has so far been spent)
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Johnny

@ tenman et al...II

#18 Jumbee Picknee » 2012-12-04 20:33

Once you get things going, drafts, by laws, etc, do the World tour, TOWN HALL MEETING STYLE both in cities and on the internet.
We are talking a gr8 game here on Caribarena, now lets walk that talk.

Vere Cornwall Lake
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Jumbee Picknee

@ tenman et al

#17 Jumbee Picknee » 2012-12-04 20:26

Tenman, as usual you fine tune your work. Those of us who have the pleasure of blogging/conver sing with you on a daily basis knows this.
A couple of things here;
1. The subject of Nationals living abroad and those at home in regards to investment.
2. Many are calling for New Blood i.e. A different ideology to control the House of Representatives , a New Political Party.
Those of you, who are so inclined MUST get the ball rolling there in the Nation. Why, because you are on the ground, on the front lines, you would know who to be leary of. Those of Us abroad, come and go, the time to get into every nook and cranny is not possible.
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Jumbee Picknee

@Justice freak

#16 ANTIGUAN WOMAN » 2012-12-04 19:05

Today is the 4th of Dec,SS has not paid some of its pensioners,neit her have some Civil servants received their salaries,I guess this to is the fault of the ALP.Unless you can give account for at least the $700,000,000 which was supposedly spent on road works and the Millions spent on fences and bathrooms some of which we are unable to locate,you have no moral authority to speak about theft. It is about time that the cold hard reality is faced,that in 2004 A,guans voted in the most inept govt this country has ever seen,to make it worse,they are not just inept but absolutely brazenly corrupt,the amount of taxes that they bled from this country and has nothing to show for it,is enough for them to enter 1735 without a trial,money dont walk or fly.
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ANTIGUAN WOMAN

Tenman

#15 Dig It » 2012-12-04 17:23

Tenman, sorry if I wasn't clear on that! This is all putting "scenarios" out there. Yep, we should get rid of the "residency" requirement for those Nationals Living abroad that invest in rebuilding the economy or "real projects" as you suggested. In no way am I "discriminating " against our locals living here, as I know some of them who are wealthy, and is willing to help but just don't want any part of the GOAB (that I know we can agree). How do we get them to have "trust" in doing business with the government that has been "anti-business" for the last eight years, that, of course, if we are "part hacks" or "supporters" of the GOAB. In that regards, I believe a program should set up to get rich people living here to invest more, and get incentives just like national abroad. Tenman, just like you, I acknowledge the ill-treatments of our own! Yet, many of us sit back and take it, without putting up resistance. Trust me, we can have a "collaboration" of both locals and nationals, if we could only "reprogrammed" our politicians!
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Dig It

Pity My Simplicity Since I Live In The IMF's NEST!

#14 John French II » 2012-12-04 17:05

Notes From A Native Son Of The Rock! Tenman, Congrats! "Quaecumque Sunt Vera" - "Whatsoever Things Are True" is the Motto of St. Francis Xavier University with the Coady Institute where the Good Hon. Dr. PM got international labour training and from the University his Honorary Doctorate. One would have thought that he would live up to the Motto and insist that his ministers be exemplary with the truth.
That the IMF has been trying to overcome the odds by projecting a positive 2012 nothwithstandin g that in 2010 & 2011 they had projected negative growth for 2012. Friends, CountryWomen/Me n, when you have had three years of Negative growth and reached the bottom, any little change in direction even though positive does not mean growth.
That the Good Hon. Min. Of Fin. ha**ed himself on his own Petard of Not Knowing should be no surprise. The Brain has a hell of a time of processing Lies in time and place.
Keep your Powder Dry! How can The Good Hon Min produce a Budget in a Few Days and not know how you are doing! Have they totally abdicated to the IMF, IFC & World Bank Technocrats?
Oh Gad! Sayah Ah Prayah Fuh Mi ahn MI Pickey Head Picknee!
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John French II

Dig It

#13 tenman » 2012-12-04 15:52

Dig It, they already have a right to vote once they meet the residency requirement. Are you saying that we should even do away with that one month residency requirement for nationals abroad (by the way persons living here the draconian requirement is 6 months) ? My suggestion would be for the government to offer them the option to invest in some real projects via debt or equity. The bond option should afford them the option of the USD since some may be wary of the currency risk and the ridiculous bank exchange fees. Getting a over 6% bond is better than the 1% they are currently getting from US banks.

What about the locals we have here who do have moneys they could invest, what incentives should we offer them? Seems to me that presently when it comes to matters in Antigua, its locals who reside here, who pay a greater penalty. The reason lies in the fact that essentially government sees its people as worse than cockroaches (Visit a few government offices if you think I am wrong)

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tenman

correction

#12 Dig It » 2012-12-04 14:59

In the first post meant to say "...if you're NOT proactive..."
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Dig It

@Tenman pt.2...National s Investment Programe

#11 Dig It » 2012-12-04 14:31

Tenman, speaking of CIP, we could have our own with our own "nationals abroad." I believe we should offer incentives to those citizens that investor in rescuing the economy with a "right-to-vote" in our general elections. In past, I was blatantly against this idea because many of them were coming home to vote and leaving those that live here to bear the consequence of the vote. Now, they are not only "voting" but they adding their "investments" to "nation-buildin g" at this critical time. I know many of them have contributed to FDI in some capacity. Many of them are walthy folks, compared to other investors from the Middle East but I believe an reasonable investment of $50,000 or more would be ideal. Yet, in order, for this to work, we must, convince our fellow nationals that our "badmindedness" and "corrupt" practices must be removed.
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Dig It

@Tenman

#10 Dig It » 2012-12-04 13:37

Tenman, I am glad to see CA give you the "credit" you deserve! Kudos to you for your "researching abilities" and for keeping a keen eye on the GOAB's quest to meet "revenue-target s," which the MOF said is "highly unlikely." It is simple, if you're proactive in cutting the fat from "wage bill," be "fiscal conservative," and stimulate the "private sector," then the MOF will always have a "shortfall" in meeting those targets. Meanwhile, we are to believe that the 2013 budget will be any different than 2012's. We can't simply "tax-our-way-ou t" to meet targets by the IMF! Instead of CIP, why not reach out to our "nationals-abro ad" to add to "nation-buildin g," or ask the ABIA to find "investors" in our "hostile-busine s-friendly" country? Oh, I forgot, we once had a plan to bring "ZackyMann, and create about "800-pie-in-the -sky-jobs." The GOAB had no "real-committme nt" to fight "overall fiscal deficit" from day one! And, now, our "donkey-back" is broken, Lord knows which Mountain-and-va lley they will run to in finding more people to bail them out!
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Dig It

With a Candle in the Dark I seek one good Politician

#9 Lord Have Mercy » 2012-12-04 13:18

@ 1ken My friend what you are saying is quite logical, it sound good in theory, but it is really not that simplistic. Investment decisions also requires investor confidence, which is lacking from the equation you presented.

@ Jimmy ALP had several equally incompetent Finance Ministers without a peep from you ... UPP learned how to avoid the Tenders Board from ALP.

@Tenman You know better, because you are the sharpest knife in the pack, so "don't hate the player hate the game." You need to do the systems analysis and realize what it is that permits these shark oil salesmen to get over on us constantly.

All Antiguans have ever been prepared to do is talk, which is now supplemented with b logging.

Bunch of cowards.
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Lord Have Mercy

Morris - the ability to ** on you and tell you its rain

#8 tenman » 2012-12-04 09:46

Morris, I see you notice how the stimulus man enjoys word play/ obfuscation. They then wonder why persons are unable to trust them.

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tenman

Dear Mr Lovell

#7 Justice Freak » 2012-12-04 09:05

The UPP thought that despite the fact that the ALP raided the Treasury and statutory bodies of all available funds, it did not have to lock up anybody because its ingenuity and investment programme would replenish these funds. Unfortunately, the global downturn took care of that notion. Now the very same persons who raided the country are castigating you, calling you all kinds of names, and making it look as though you are personally responsible. I think you are trying real hard to make things good from a bad situation, but UPP's judgment was flawed.
RULE #1: When persons do wrong things, THEY MUST BE PUNISHED. I am sure you wish you could roll the clock back and do what you all said you would do in the first place: LOCK THEM UP UNTIL THEY RETURN THE MONEY THEY STOLE FROM THE COUNTRY!! Believe you me, you would not now be losing your hair with worry about our current financial problems
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Justice Freak

Lies and the Lying Liars who tell them.

#6 Morris » 2012-12-04 08:02

When questioned about this, Lovell said he was unable to answer accurately since there is the overall deficit to account for, and then the primary deficit; notwithstanding that the insufficiency cited in his last report reflects the “overall fiscal deficit”.

Excuse me sir! It is your job to know and present the correct information to the public; that is what you get paid for. The citizens don't need to be taken on any roller coaster ride with false information...A NU is not a theme park!
Can someone please buy the Finance Minister a pair of tap shoes for Xmas? Please, he is very talented! We could have another Sammy Davis Jr. or Gregory Hines here.
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Morris

some truths

#5 tenman » 2012-12-04 08:00

We need to start being more proactive. Measures need to be more dynamic. The MP cannot speak about the economy recovering when government revenue is not performing to projections. Businesses continue to close and companies like APUA and SS which depend on working consumers are in an unhealthy state. The question that needs to be asked is are the tax measures causing this problem? Things like requiring importers to provide tax certificates, are we simply shooting ourselves in the foot?

Why is it that our tax polices always seem (Observing business closures in St. John's) to be more detrimental to business owners of African decent? I suspect something (see for evidence: Customs collects huge fine from business, broker By By Brenton Henry- Observer Media - Thursday, July 12th, 2012) is going on at our ports which is aiding these closures.

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tenman

RE: Huge Revenue Shortfall For 2012

#4 Piky Head » 2012-12-04 07:26

The system hasn't failed, it was built to look this way.
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Piky Head

Lovell

#3 Hearse First » 2012-12-04 07:03

The UPP's poster boy continues to talk about what he knows nothing about!
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Hearse First

Only In Antigua

#2 Jimmy » 2012-12-04 07:02

You take someone who never worked in any kind of financial institution or ran any kind of business and make that person Financial Controller of the country's largest business (the Government)? Where else would this have been permitted?

Baldwin should have taken someone from the Private Sector and made them run the Ministry of Finance and let Lovell continue to be Minister in name only! In any case it's too late now!

Ask lovell about the contract to dredge the Harbour...witho ut going to tender. Is this true? Please Carib Arena please check and let us know!
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Jimmy

Reality Check

#1 1ken » 2012-12-04 06:34

In business when sales are slow, inorder to improve sales you call a sale and reduce your prices to generate business. The same principle should be applied to Government, give tax relief incentives to business and I guaranty there will be an increase in opperations with government.
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1ken

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